Sunday, June 29, 2008

Are the stock markets going up or down?

Where are the markets heading? A brief review of stock markets, gold, oil, rupee and more....

Stock Markets :Stock markets globally are very bearish with US Markets leading the downfall. Asian markets are bearish but I would put them as oversold, and they need a counter-rally. If someone is short should think of covering and shorting at higher levels. Overall the indian markets I think should bottom out somewhere near 3600-3800 levels in Nifty. At current levels in India, I would not prefer to short.

Gold : The fall of March-April 2008 kept Gold in sideways consolidation zone for some time. I think now this consolidation is over and it should start moving up. Also Dollar which was taking a couterrally from its big fall seems that this counterrally is over and now dollar should start moving down and Gold should start moving up. Overall I think Gold would also move up in times of high inflation. Inflation is likely to remain high in next some months which will keep stock markets depressed and Gold up. (Normally Silver also follows . I think fresh longs can be made in Gold.)

Oil (Crude) : Crude is taking a one side rally from consolidation zone of 85-90 dollars a barrel. It was consolidating in June, 2008 in a sideways zone and took a break last week. I think it should move up initially to a level of around 150 and then consolidate further. Overall the formations of it is all bullish. The bullish formations get neutralised only if it trades below 132. Hold to your long.

Dow : Dow closed at 11346 on Friday 29th June, 2008. It is too much oversold and should not be shorted. I would not short here but look at counterrally. 11700 - 12000 would act as strong resistance to it. I think most of world stock markets tend to follow Dow.

Indian Rupee- Dollar: Indian Rupee looks very weak as one of weakest currency related to other currencies. If Rupee trades below 43, then I think a very strong short covering can come which can take rupee to 44 levels. Take care.

Disclaimer: Trading is risky and all matter above mentioned is for educational purpose. Consult your Financial Advisor before you trade as there is every chance of losses.
You are requested to give your comments to this post as it will motivate me to write further and answer your querries.

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