Saturday, December 27, 2008

Long-Term's bailout: The roots of our present crisis

Everyone's heard of the Long Term Capital Management Fund. It was a regular hedge fund whose strengths were its 200 employees, many of them financial quants and quantitative analysts who took on highly leveraged, risky and unsound bets, and made huge billion dollar investments in interest rate derivatives. All was going well, but when Russia, in 1998, were unable to pay their debts, the fund's exotic investments brought their balance sheet in red, and their obligations multiplied.

Since they were leveraged, Long-Term Capital owed large amounts of fund to various banks and financial institutions.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York then, organized a consortium of companies to buy it and cover the debts. The shareholders suffered, but creditors were paid in full.

Tyler Cowen argues that this may seem like a good bailout - no money upfront from the government, creditors paid, financial crisis put off...

However this ad hoc intervention by the government send a wrong signal to everyone. In Tyler's words
Creditors came to believe that their loans to unsound financial institutions would be made good by the Fed — as long as the collapse of those institutions would threaten the global credit system. Bolstered by this sense of security, bad loans mushroomed.

And no guesses for who the creditors were : Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, among others. They went on to continue business in the same fashion : recklessly investing leveraged money. And 10 years later, we know the consequences of the 3 firms.

The seeds of this financial crisis were sowed in the 1998 bailout of Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund.

Tyler Cowen, then wonders what would have happened if there had been no bailout. We would have experienced a 'milder version of the downturn in 1998 than the more severe version of 10 years later.' However, minus the collapsed housing bubble, government's large fiscal deficit, and the far-reaching extents of the derivative markets.

In his words "A financial crisis related to Long-Term Capital, however painful, probably would have been easier to handle than the perfect storm of recent months. "

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Sunday, December 21, 2008

The best economic blogs

The feed readers have finally touched 100, and its shame on me not to respect the daily visitors and write informative and interactive posts. I am sorry to each one of you.

The economic crisis is being stretched, no hope is near, a new president of US is elected, a bailout for everything under the sun....yes there's so much economic activity and criticism/support of all decisions and policies.

Its of paramount importance that one learns the finer nuances of such activities, and for this I'd like to recommend a few blogs I visit on a daily basis :

Greg Mankiw's blog : A professor of Economics at Harvard, this blog contains Greg Mankiw's "random observations for students" and also some of the finest articles across the web which can become a very useful resource for us.

Calculated Risk : This blog's an authority on housing, securitisation, and offers a great readership with whom you can discuss everyday financial issues. The blog offers their own invaluable analysis of all economic activities round the clock. A very lively discussion indeed with each post attracting 200-600 comments easily.

The Conscience of a Liberal : The daily blog of Paul Krugman, 2008 winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics. Get to know the great economist's opinions here and also interesting trivia about anything random that may come in Krugman's mind.

Economists View : Find all the day's best stories and original ideas hand-picked in this blog (from many other sources that is). Also great links for everyday reading. One blog from where you can track all other sources of intellectual thought.

Freakonomics : Read the book? Now read their daily blog. Steven Levitt, Stephen Dubner and a host of other guest authors pour their thoughts on the 'hidden side of everything'.  Sometimes their posts and comments get very funny, but this blog is quite entertaining.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Now this is getting scary....



ps. needless to say, this is not to be mistaken as an official warning from their side, but is instead being circulated on the net by individuals. Hat tip (The big picture)

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Big 3 face 2 problems at one time

Problem 1: Declining market share, sales, profit since decades

Problem 2: The great economic meltdown!

Gone are the days when "What was good for General Motors was good for America" or the growth momentum the Big 3 used to give to USA's capitalistic economy....

automakers